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The RoBlog
Sunday, November 14, 2004
Prediction Thresholds
It strikes me that there are thresholds of time over which various types of predictions of the future are valid. For example, the threshold for predictability of quantum events may be very small (if possible at all); which is to say that after some period of time from now, the ability to make a meaningful prediction has dropped to zero.

What is interesting about this is that this may be true for things higher up the abstract hierarchy (at some point I'll have to post something about Peter Thiel's (Co-Founder of PayPal) presentation at Accelerating Change 2004 and how that inspired a hierarchical model of reality for me, and what that means and why it's important). For example, the stock market might be predictable at a threshold of 10E6, economies at 10E8, and the like. It would be interesting if we could classify all of the types of things we would want to make predictions on the future about and see if there are categories we could group them into that have the same predictability time threshold. Further, it would be interesting to see what the relationship is of those things with short predictability thresholds, and those things with longer predictability thresholds.

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