Friday, September 30, 2005
Kurzweil and Transportation
If Kurzweil's general observations - that "progress" is made on an exponential curve - hold for transportation, would that imply that systems like PRT, or fleeting, or other systems that would increase the average throughput of daily transportation systems, must come into play soon?
It would be interesting to see a plot of the average trip to work time as far back as it could be traced. In the US, at least, I wouldn't be surprised if the time had been getting longer throughout most of the last century. My guess is, however, that the average throughput (people per second?) of a particular segment of land transportation infrastructure has probably gone up. This may indicate that you have to choose your metrics wisely if you're trying to get one of Kurzweil's curves.