Saturday, October 09, 2004

Processing Power Curve

Here's the second image from Moravec's paper. This one appears to be the basis for (or at least is extremely similar to) a graph is a paper on accelerating change by Ray Kurzweil (which I'll be posting a full comment on, and on the idea of accelerating change in general, sometime soon).

This graph shows how processing power has increased over the last century, and where various milestones are relative to the assumed capabilities of various life forms. Of particular interest in the extrapolations as calculated from various points in history. This graph (which is also a log graph) appears to be showing that our ability to create more processing power is a double exponential, indicating that not only are we creating exponentially more processing power, but that the time between leaps in power is shrinking.