The RoBlog
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
Today Untitled
I'm trying to get back in the flow of doing some creative writing. Here's my attempt for today.
Freely flowing and uninspired. Heart is eager, head is tired.
Down the spurious mountain, ride, while plains of desert bake inside.
A glow, a flow, a want to know, of ages future, long ago.
The path is wide, the road is coarse, the mountain high, the yelling hoarse.
A bridge, a sky, a feeling strong. The journey short, the path is long.
Inspire, aspire.
Reaching, getting, holding, petting. Son is rising, sun is setting.
And everywhere we look there are flowers.
And everywhere we look there are towers.
And everything we look at is grey because we expect colors.
Wednesday, July 04, 2012
Unoccupied Self-Driving Cars; Some Thoughts
I wanted to talk a little bit more about the quick comment I
made in a previous post entitled "Renting Cars", Comments on FutureShock.
It seems inevitable at this point that we will have some
version (or versions) of a car that will drive itself. Google’s had self-driving cars for a while
now, and they’re far from the only ones pursuing this. Nevada created a special kind of license
plate for self-driving cars, though I believe they still require one or more
people to be in the car while it’s driving.
So where does this lead us to in the future?
Obviously it will mean that we can focus on other things besides
driving during in-car time (this seems like it can only be a good thing
considering how many things compete for our attention already when we’re
driving, and if nothing is competing for it, the dangers of getting drowsy).
It seems likely that once we have successful consumer grade self-driving
vehicles, it will only be a short step to getting unattended automatic driving
approved.
If this is the case, I think there’s a very real question
about whether most people will even continue to own cars, but let’s assume for
a few moments that they do. What
changes?
Your car can drop you off and then go find its own parking
spot. I’ve often thought it’d be cool if
cars at the mall (say) would self-park, and then work their way to the
front-most parking spots as people leave.
Of course, if cars were totally automated, this would probably be
unnecessary as you’d just let your car know that you need it to pick you up and
it would drive itself from whatever parking space it had found.
Your car could seek out a place to recharge (I’m making the
assumption here that all self-driving cars would be electric, but while I think
it’s likely, there’s no strong reason that it has to be the case). This would be important if not every parking space
had recharging capabilities, which we can pretty confidently suppose at least
in the short run. If, like my local
grocery store, there were a small number of charging stations, then we may still
get the situation I imagined above where cars jockey for the available spaces.
Tangenting here in two directions:
What is needed for a self-charging car?
For a self-driving car to recharge while you’re not there it
would need a way to automatically connect with the energy grid. Current charging stations require a person do
much the same kinds of actions that gas-based refueling requires: lifting
hatches, taking a fueling connection off of a fueling station and plugging it
in to the car in the right place.
It would seem, then, that the best approach for recharging
would be inductive recharging, and that a standard system for doing this should
be adopted by car manufacturers and recharging station manufacturers alike
sooner rather than later.
Besides the ease created for an automatic car, inductive
charging is easier on humans as well as you just pull into the right space and
you’re basically done. There’s no reason
that we should carry forward the old actions of fueling a car into a new
fuel paradigm like electricity.
Of course, what we’ll probably get is cars that have a
standard “plug-in” interface so that they can be plugged in pretty much
anywhere, which will further encourage plug-in-style recharging stations. Inductive (or similar drive-onto charging)
will come around and most cars and stations will eventually accommodate both
for maximum flexibility.
What is needed for cars to “jockey for available spaces”?
For self-driving cars to negotiate for limited fueling
stations they need something that is almost as exciting as self-driving: car-to-car
communication. It’s so interesting, in
fact, that I’m going to save it for another post.
Back to the benefits of having your own self-driving car.
You could potentially rent your car out to other
people. I can envision a web site where
people indicate where they need to go and how long they need to be there and any
private car that anticipates being free during that time can fill the need for
a fee. While being used, the car would
ensure that it could return in time for its owner and refuse to travel (based
on changed plans) to locations that would put that at risk (keeping an eye on
current traffic, and having a historical traffic patterns both stored locally
and available via the Internet).
Obviously, if you were tired, intoxicated, injured,
under-age, or otherwise unable to drive, you could still get places in your
car.
If you needed something picked up but you couldn't get away
to get it, you could send your car (assuming someone would be there to load it
in, and assuming that the thing you needed couldn’t be similarly shipped from
its origin). This holds for things like
packages as well as things like children from school and in-laws from the
airport.
Let’s explore the idea of picking up children a little
further. Obviously this would only work
if the kid was capable of making good decisions (for example, I would totally
trust my daughter now that she’s 10, but I don’t think I could when she was 4),
or some trustworthy adult was there to make sure the kid was loaded appropriately.
I’d probably want some kind of occupancy sensor that would
alert me if there were more or fewer passengers than expected, and probably
some on-board camera so that I could look in to make sure everything was alright
(onboard cameras would be helpful in the renting situation above as well, since
it could take before-and-after photos of your car in case the car gets damaged
in some way by the renters).
I can image a line of cars at schools waiting to pick up the
appropriate children. Obviously there'd need to be some sort of process that made sure that the right kid got into the
right car. This would probably need to
be both on the school’s end (right license plate, for example), and on the car’s
end (facial recognition of the passengers).
Already we've found some interesting things to do with full
automated cars, and I’m sure there is more, but I have some non-automated
driving to do, so they, along with why self-driving cars may mean fewer people
owning cars (which you can probably already see where that is going), will have
to wait for now.
Let me know your thoughts on the future of “car” travel in
the meantime.
Labels: future, predictions, self-driving cars
Tuesday, July 03, 2012
Grandes Cosas Vienen (A Star Wars/Coldplay Parody)
We were listening to Viva La Vida by Coldplay in the car the other day and a Star Wars-related phrase came to me as a substitution for the "I know St. Peter won't call my name."
Being on vacation, I have a little extra time on my hand, so here's a pass at a complete song. It takes a little liberty with meter, and I think could tell a better story, but not bad for under 45 minutes' work, I think.
Grandes Cosas Vienen
(Something Big is Coming)
Planets will line up to worship me
Now in the morning I sleep alone
Count the stars that I’m going to own
I’m never going to roll the dice
Feel the fear in my enemy's eyes
Listen as the crowd will sing
"Now the old kings are dead!” Long live me!"
I will master Obi Wan
Clench my fist and he’s gone
Qui-Gonn, Yoda, and Mace Windu,
Will be speckles of dust when I am through
I’ll feel the Emperor’s strength course through me
A bad-ass galactic power I will be
The dark side of the force revealed
A crimson lightsaber I will wield
All this effort is not in vein
Once you start there is never
Never an other course
But that is once I learn the Force
I have studied all of Vader’s ways
Could choke the insolent for days
Being evil to the weak and dumb
People cannot believe what I've become
I say to hell with lifting crates
Bring me heads on silver plates
I may only be thirteen
But who would never want to be king?
I’ll feel the Emperor’s strength course through me
A bad-ass galactic power I will be
The dark side of the force revealed
A crimson lightsaber I will wield
All this effort is not in vain
I know Lord Vader will call my name
I’ll become a Sith of course,
But that is once I learn the Force
I’ll feel the Emperor’s strength course through me
A bad-ass galactic power I will be
The dark side of the force revealed
A crimson lightsaber I will wield
All this effort is not in vain
I know Lord Vader will call my name
I’ll become a Sith of course,
But that is once I learn the Force
Labels: Coldplay, lyrics, parody, song, Star Wars
Monday, July 02, 2012
Battlecards
Battlecards
A more strategic version of the classic card game War
My daughter and I came up with an improvement on the classic
card game War that makes it more of a thinking person’s version of the game, so
I thought I’d share it. It may look
complicated, but it’s really not once you account for a couple of special
cases, and it allows you the opportunity to employ strategy and counter
strategy in a way that the classic game doesn’t offer.
It’s not perfect. It
needs a faster way of ending the game when it’s clear that you’re going to
lose. I’m toying around with
periodically removing the lowest remaining card from play (“everyone turn in
your 2s), but can’t figure out if that’s unfair in some way, when to start
removing them, and how often.
Let me know if you end up playing it, how it goes, and
if you have to tweak anything to get it to work (or I forgot to address something or need more examples to help explain things).
Setup
Everyone gets an equal share of the deck, arranged in a
single pile face down as in the regular game of War.
Each player takes the top 5 cards off of their pile and looks
at them (but doesn't show anyone else).
Regular Game Play
Use your favorite method of choosing someone to go
first. I just let my daughter go first,
but since she’s beaten me every time we play it may be time to reconsider.
The first person chooses any of the five cards in her hand to
lay down, face up. The remaining players
decide which of the 5 cards in their hands that they want to play on their turn
(we go clockwise, typically).
The person who put down the highest card gets all the face
up cards, and puts them in a face-up stack that is separate from their
face-down stack.
Everyone draws enough cards from the face-down pile to get
back up to 5 cards (this will usually be one card, but may be more if wars were
fought).
The person who won the last round then chooses a card from
her hand and sets it down face up, starting the next round.
Emptying Your Face-Down Pile
At some point your face-down pile will become empty. When that happens, you can draw no more cards
until you've played every card in your hand EVEN THOUGH you probably have cards
in a face up pile. This means that, if
you don’t get into any wars, you’ll have 5 cards to choose from, then 4, then
3, then 2, and then you’ll have no choice but to play the last card that you
are holding.
This is really where the strategy comes in as an attentive
opponent can guess at what you might have left and play accordingly. Similarly, you might guess how others will
play knowing what you have and try to protect high cards for later use rather
than risk being forced into losing one.
Once you have played the last card from your hand, you can turn
over your face-up pile (making it the face-down pile), shuffle it, draw the top
5 and continue playing, creating a new face-up pile the next time you win a round.
War
If someone ahead of you in a round puts down a card that you
have in your hand, you can choose to put down that card and force a war. Keep in mind that, just like in regular War, if
the highest card played in the round is higher than the war cards, that person
wins and the war never happens. Because
of that, a war can only begin when all players have played their cards for that
round.
To play out a war, take the top 3 cards from your face-down
pile and place them face down next to your face up card that’s in the war (just
like you would in regular War); no peeking!
Then the last person to get into the war chooses any card from their
hand and places it face up next to their three face-down cards. Each player engaged in the war does the same
thing going from the last person to get into the war to the first person who
got war forced upon them. The player
with the highest face-up card wins everything.
Of course, there can be more rounds of war if the highest cards played
also match.
No one draws any new cards into their hands while they are
at war (unless you are one of the situations listed below). So if you started the round with 5 cards in
your hand and played one that got you into a war, you will only have 4 cards to
choose from to try and win the war. If you
get engaged in a second round of war, then you’ll only have 3 to choose from.
War: Special Cases
If you run out of face-down cards before you’ve played the
three face down cards for your war, then the remaining cards come from the
cards in your hand. Lucky you, you get
to choose which ones they are! If using
the cards in your hand would leave you with no cards in your hand, choose the
card that you want to put face up, put the other card(s) face down for the war,
turn over your face-up pile, shuffle it and pull the cards you need to put face
down from the top of the pile (still no peaking!). Once it’s your turn to play the face up card,
play the last one in your hand.
If you have no cards in your hand when a war starts (that is, the last card in your
hand got you into the war), then you can turn over your face-up pile, shuffle
it, draw 5 cards into your hand, and take the next 3 cards off the top of the
pile and put them down without looking.
Lucky you, you get 5 cards in your hand to choose from! If you’ve already shuffled the face-up pile
because you’re in a second round of war, you don’t need to reshuffle them
again.
If you don’t have enough cards to do a war (that is, you on
the brink of losing), then pick one card to use as your face-up card, and put
whatever cards you have left face down for your war cards. If you only have one card, then you don’t
need to put down any face down cards; you’ll win or lose based on the one card
that you have left!
If the card that got you into the war was your very last
card (sad face), then that is the card that you will fight with. If anyone else’s card beats the card that you
went to war with, they get it all. If
the highest card played by anyone else is still a tie, then you keep playing
with that card until you’ve won or lost (they will need to keep putting down
cards in regular war style as long as THEY still have cards). (I can imagine a tie here where, say, two
people have played their last cards and they are the same, and higher than any
other players’ cards. It’s bound to be a
rare condition, but a crafty player could force it. In this case, I’d suggest that the winning
players take their own cards back, take the remaining cards that other players
might have contributed along the way and turn them face-down. Shuffle them and deal them to the winners
evenly. If there are any extra cards
that would prevent an even distribution, they go to the first player to force
the war. Let me know if this ever
happens to you.)
The Joker Variant
This is the version that we are currently playing. It’s totally optional and probably only worth
adding once you've mastered the main game.
It adds another small bit of strategy that can be fun.
Add in the Jokers to the deck before shuffling and
dealing. Jokers take on the value of the
last card that WON a round. So if there
are two people playing, and a 9 beat a 3 in the previous round, the value of
any Joker is now a 9. It remains a 9
until a different value wins a round.
During this time, it’s treated as any other 9. This means that if you have a Joker and no
other high cards, you can suddenly get a high card. If someone wins a round with an Ace, for
example, your Joker is now an ace. As
soon as someone wins a round with a lower card (say, a 4), though, your Joker
loses its value (from an Ace to a 4).
During a war, a Joker keeps the value of the card that won
the last round the entire time. If the
card that won the last round was a 6, and the current round ends up in a war
starting with aces, for example, Jokers are worth 6 the whole time, not an ace
since no one has won this round yet. If
a war over aces is won by a 4, then the next round the Joker becomes a 4, not
an ace (since the 4 is what won the round).
Sunday, July 01, 2012
The Road to Inspiration
I’m currently on vacation in the wilds of Northeast of
Canada, by which I currently mean Prince Edward Island, which is not all that
wild at all.
If you know me at all (and no doubt you don’t), you’ll know
that I’m not short on ideas, but am quite short on…what…motivation?...energy?....stick-to-it-iveness? Let’s just say the “doing”.
I have now two book series that I’d like to write, any
number of articles about what the future has in store for us and how to learn
from past predictions, ideas for new things, ideas for improving old things, ideas
for websites that should be profitable if I could only get around to them,
ideas that would take hundreds of millions of dollars to implement, thoughts
about all kinds of philosophy, humorous observations of all kinds, a
presentation or two for the local Quantified Self meetup that I’d like to give,
and the occasional food/movie criticism.
As you can guess, not much is happening on any of these
fronts as of yet, but on this trip I’ve run into two, what you may call “propellants”.
First, we visited the Alexander Graham Bell museum in Nova
Scotia. It was my wife’s idea to go
there and, I have to say, I was pretty indifferent. I came away pretty inspired. Mr. Bell, most well known for his invention
of the telephone, was hugely prolific as near as I can tell. Also, as near as I can tell, he considered
himself an amateur at most everything. I
don’t know why Thomas Edison, who was no doubt triply productive, doesn’t
inspire me to the same depths. I imagine
Edison as the head of a large enterprise and Bell as working with a small number
of passionate people. I imagine the
truth to be more complex than this.
I tried to find something suitable from the gift shop to
capture the inspiration that I felt, but the best I could come up with was a
bookmark (my daughter, on the other hand, came away with a complete ink and pen
set like they used in the days before ball points). It’s not enough, but I’ll put it on my desk
when I get home as a reminder that the race goes to the runner, not the one who
could imagine how to run faster.
The second propellant was the discovery that a neighbor died
just as we set out on our adventure. He
was 57, and I don’t know what happened, but he left behind two kids, a wife,
and an apparently non-trivial legacy. A
reminder that, as yet, time is ticking for all of us, and once the sponge
between our ears is no longer wet, everything in it dries up and blows away, so
at the very least, write things down.
So that’s what I’m doing.
Hopefully this means more entries about things and progress towards the
increasingly large list of things I’d like to even get started on.
If you’d like to help me out on this, feel free to give me a
nudge virtually or in person. The more
propellants we all have, I guess, the better.
Saturday, June 30, 2012
The Emergence of Elephants
So, I was curious about how one might get from the laws of physics (and probably some kind of starting conditions) to, say, an elephant.
The reason for this was a couple-fold.
First, I didn’t know if it was possible. Given what I know about the state of knowledge, it didn’t seem likely, but given that I’m always surprised at what I don’t know, I thought I’d take a look.
Second, if you COULD get from physics to an elephant (not contemplating, for the moment, getting to a specific elephant), then it might have something to say about the concept of determinism; a topic that my friend Justin and I are continually exploring by way of good-natured arguments where I try to determine (heh, pun) what the consequences of a fully determined universe might be on an individual person, and he steadfastly believes in magic.
Third, it would tighten another discussion that Justin and I are always revisiting, which is whether, in an infinite universe (whatever specific kind of infinite that you happen to prefer), there is a version of you that has made better choices. Justin thinks there is, and that makes him feel great by association with his more successful self. I think that any universe that had so specific a lead up to get exactly you to be born may be required to be the same from there on out. Much of this discussion is on the nature of randomness and whether there are really new universes splitting off around every decision that you COULD make (I believe that there may be splitting universes on a quantum level, but once you get to the macroscopic level of people, all bets are off).
Finally, there is something intriguing about thinking of science longitudinally across all sciences at once. It seems like there are some interesting opportunities to speculate that the laws of physics basically make the universe a giant information processing machine (an example I’ve heard in the now distant past), which would have effects across all sciences at once, rather than in each domain specifically.
What DO physics, cosmology, chemistry, biology, psychology, and sociology have as common organizing principles. What ways of looking at these can we come up with that shed new light on everything all at once?
It would seem like the concept of emergence would be at play here in more than a “emergence happens” sort of way. And I’m sure complexity theory has something to say here, though I find the Wikipedia article on this fairly impenetrable.
(As an aside, am I the only one who finds Wikipedia is fairly impenetrable as soon as you get outside of topics that most people know something about? There seems to be a cliff in any topic where it goes from being accessible to the lay person like me, to where you need to be a specialist in that particular field in order to know anything about it. For a while I saw “Simple English” alternatives on a sparse few of these kinds of articles, but not in quite some time.)
Of course, I believe that this area is being actively pursued by probably thousands of people all over the world, so I thought I’d Google the unlikely phrase “can physics predict an elephant”.
The top result that I got was entitled “Can physics predict a giraffe” on a blog called Cosmic Hoizons. Close enough.
That post is, itself, a comment on a post “Why biology and chemistry is not physics” at The Curious Wavefunction.
It is there that I’m working my way through the interesting (and, so far, civil) discussion in the comments.
I realize this isn’t a very satisfying place to end a blog post, but I assume that the result of finishing the comments will be more questions than answers, and so this post is a reflection of that. Learning is a journey, not a destination, so consider this a vacation update. Which, not coincidentally, it is, in fact.
Friday, June 22, 2012
"Renting Cars", Comments on Future Shock
Future Shock is a book written by Alvin Toffler, and published in 1970. I'm reading through it and commenting as I go. Feel free to follow (and comment) along!
On p65, Toffler mentions the then burgeoning rental car market as another indicator of our growing transient relationship with "things". It would be interesting to see what he would think now of the "flex" cars available in most metro areas that allow you to pick them up when and where you need them, and more or less abandon them when you are done.
Even better, the likely coming wave of self-driving cars that come to you when you need them, take you to where you want to go, and then drive off to service someone else.
"Length of Car Ownership", Comments on Future Shock
Future Shock is a book written by Alvin Toffler, and published in 1970. I'm reading through it and commenting as I go. Feel free to follow (and comment) along!
On p64 Toffler mentions "..the fact that the average car owner in the United States keeps his automobile only three and a half years."
I did some quick searching to see where that figure was today. According to data compiled by global market intelligence firm R.L. Polk & Co, that number is up from the 42 months quoted by toffler to 57 months now, though back in 2002 it was as low as 38 months.
They believe that both the current economic situation and better build quality are driving the shift to longer ownership.
"Rental Housing Starts", Comments on Future Shock
Future Shock is a book written by Alvin Toffler, and published in 1970. I'm reading through it and commenting as I go. Feel free to follow (and comment) along!
On p63, Toffler mentions that in 1961, rental units as a percentage of all housing starts had reached 24%, and by 1969 they had exceeded the number of regular housing starts.
Since I'm the curious type, I set out to see what the rate was these days. I'm not sure if this is the same data that Toffler was referring to, but the Commerce Department lists new housing starts for the last year, broken down by single units, 2-4 attached units, and 5+ units. These all may be non-rental properties, but if singles indicates owned, and 2+ indicates rentals (as opposed to, say, townhouses), then the average over the last year has been about 34.5%.
Here's a graphic:
"Modular Architecure", Comments on Future Shock
Future Shock is a book written by Alvin Toffler, and published in 1970. I'm reading through it and commenting as I go. Feel free to follow (and comment) along!
On p63, Toffler uses modular “snap in” architecture as examples of
how man’s relationship with “things” is becoming ever more transient.
“…they all conspire toward the same psychological end: the
ephemeralization of man’s links with the things that surround him.”
Could the fact that we haven’t moved, in the intervening 40
years, to large-scale transient architecture suggest that our desire for a less
ephemeral surrounding outweighs our need for the convenience that a constantly
changing environment would bring? Or was
he just too optimistic on how soon it would be until this kind of building was
easy enough to implement broadly? Or
has, maybe, this already happened, and I’ve just missed it?