Predicting the Messy Stuff
In an older entry here, I mentioned that "...figuring out what localized instabilities would cause what to happen on the global scene is entirely beyond my comprehension." and that "My opinion is that you just have to predict around them and hope for the best."

Well, such things are no nearer to my comprehension, but it was interesting that I randomly got handed a paper by Dr. Massoud Amin, who was my wife's professor in college for a while, about applying the new branch of the mathematics of complexity to exactly this kind of thing, or at least things very close to it...I think.

In any case, as I don't know if the paper (which, frankly, gives away no details) is supposed to be public knowledge, I won't repeat its themes here, but if what he is proposing bears fruit, it will provide an interesting compass for the future of the messy things like economic development, political instability, global security, and the like.

- posted @ 6:39 PM