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The RoBlog
Sunday, September 28, 2003
I'm Not a Comic Geek, But....Auction Close Percentage
I don't collect comics, but I have friends that do, and being an INTP according to the Meyers-Briggs method, and loving systems as INTPs tend to do, I watch eBay to see how comics, and certain other collectibles, do. I'll be posting observations I've made here periodically.

One of my comic collecting friends says he has noticed a drop-off on the comic auctions he posts on eBay, meaning that less of his auctions are closing with a successful bid. While I didn't check what if the average value of a closed auction did (just lazy), I DID take a look at the close percentage rate over the last 30 weeks for comics and other assorted collectibles that I pay attention to.

The result is that, since March, the average successful close rate of auctions I've tracked has gone from nearly 48% (meaning that 48% of auctions posted received at least one bid, I didn't check for reserves being met), down to nearly 42%, with most of the drop happening in the last 6 weeks. I'm not sure if that's really enough to notice, but the numbers do appear to support my friend's intuition.

I should note that eBay changed their system a bit sometime in the last few weeks, so that could influence the numbers, BUT the volume of transactions has remained steady throughout this period, so I think I feel ok about these numbers.

Interesting to note is the fact that eBay trends appear to be on a 5 week cycle. No idea why, but I can see a set of peaks and troughs that looks very similar over each 5 week period.

Since I wasn't paying attention before March, I really couldn't say whether or not this dip is normal, and that the summer is just slow, or if this indicates something bigger going on at eBay, but it's definitely worth paying attention to.

If you have interest in some aspect of eBay auctions that can be answered numerically, let me know (roblogATthenetatworkDOTcom). I don't have the resources and data to answer every question, but if it's interesting enough, and I have time, I'll take a look and post the results.
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